Bequests, Inter Vivos Transfers, and Wealth Distribution

This paper constructs a heterogeneous agent overlapping generations model with bequests and inter vivos transfers. In the model, households in the same family line behave strategically to determine their consumption, working hours, gifts, and savings. Calibrating the model to the U.S. economy, the paper measures time preference and parental altruism consistent with the economy's capital-output ratio and the size of intergenerational transfers. The model with intergenerational transfers better explains, although not fully, the wealth distribution of the United States. The paper also analyzes the effects of government policy changes on wealth accumulation, distribution, and social welfare. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: D31, D64, D91, H31.     

Real indeterminacy of equilibria in a sunspot economy with inside money

Summary In a two-period sunspot economy with inside money andS possible realizations of the sunspot, we prove that, genetically in the space of utility functions, there areS — 1 degrees of real indeterminacy. This result generalizes the previously known result for sunspot models that, generically in endowments, there is at least one degree of real indeterminacy. The proof involves showing that generically the equilibrium allocation is different across states for some household. This property allows us to perturb the utility function in a simple way and to apply standard transversality arguments to prove our main theorem.We would like to thank David Cass, Atsushi Kajii, Michael Mandler and Paolo Siconolfi for helpful discussions.     

Current accounts of Japanese airports

The paper examines the current account of 41 major airports. When we exclude depreciation costs, only seven airports are profitable. When depreciation is excluded, only three airports are making profits. Airports managed by local governments are very difficult to sustain financially without subsidies. Airports with more than 5.2 million passengers are profitable when depreciation is taken into account, however most local airports have fewer than 2.5 million passengers. When depreciation costs are excluded, airports need at least 2.7 million passengers to be viable.     

Information Losses in a Dynamic Model of Credit

This paper examines dynamic information losses associated with loan terminations. We assume that the aggregated returns of current borrowers contain information about the mean returns to future borrowers. In a competitive loan market, the value of this information is not fully internalized by individual borrowers and lenders, and loan decisions fail to be first best. Introducing heterogeneous borrowers, who know their own risk characteristics better than lenders, safer borrowers are less willing to borrow when risk premia rise. As they cease borrowing, the information generated in credit markets becomes noisier and this tends to increase risk premia. The model produces alternating and persistent periods of “tight” and “loose” credit.     

Risk management,firm reputation,and the impact of successful cyberattacks on target firms

We develop a model where a firm has an optimal exposure to cyber risk. With rational, fully informed agents and with no hysteresis, a successful cyberattack should have no impact on a financially unconstrained target's reputation and post-attack policies. In contrast, when a successful attack involves the loss of personal financial information, there is a significant shareholder wealth loss, which is much larger than the attack's out-of-pocket costs. This excess loss is higher when the attack decreases sales growth more and lower when the board pays more attention to risk management before the attack. Further, an attack decreases a firm's risk appetite, as it beefs up its risk management and information technology and decreases the risk-taking incentives of management. Finally, successful cyberattacks adversely affect the stock price of firms in the target's industry. These results imply that successful attacks with personal financial information loss provide adverse information about cyber risk to target firms, their stakeholders, and their competitors.     

The Boosting Effect of E-WOM on Macro-level Consumption: A Cross-Industry Empirical Analysis in Japan

In this study, we carry out an empirical analysis on how electronic word-of-mouth (hereinafter “e-WOM”) marketing on e-WOM websites and electronic-commerce websites on the Internet boosts consumption on a macro-level. In our analysis, we conduct a model analysis of consumer behavior using data composed of more than 30,000 questionnaire surveys and quantitatively find the elasticity coefficient of the boost to consumption by performing a two-step GMM (generalized method of moments), which uses instrumental variables. The results of the analysis show e-WOM significantly increased expenditures in six fields: computers, electrical appliances, etc.; music; hobbies; clothing, accessories, etc.; beauty products, etc.; and goods for everyday life, etc. Furthermore, there was no field that had a significantly negative value. These results showed that, in the majority of the target fields, e-WOM had not only the effect of winning customers from the competition, but also the effect of boosting consumption on a macro-level. In addition, even from people’s subjective evaluations, there were many in all the generational groups who said that e-WOM boosted expenditures.     

EFFECTS OF TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION ON PRODUCTIVITY AND INDUSTRY GROWTH: A STUDY OF STEEL REFINING FURNACES*

This paper examines the impact of new technology on plant‐level productivity in the Japanese steel industry during the 1950's and 1960's. We estimate the production function, considering the differences in technology between the refining furnaces owned by a plant. We find that a more productive plant was likely to adopt the new technology and that the adoption would be expected to occur immediately following the peak of the productivity level achieved with the old technology. The adoption of the new technology primarily accounted not only for the industry's productivity slowdown but also for the industry's remarkable growth.     

INTER‐REGIONAL MIXED OLIGOPOLY WITH A VERTICAL STRUCTURE OF GOVERNMENT *

This paper incorporates the vertical structure of governments into a mixed oligopoly model by considering the public firms owned by different government levels, namely, a state‐owned public firm and a local public firm. As in the existing literature, a state‐owned public firm is assumed to maximise the welfare of an entire country comprising two regions. On the other hand, a local public firm is assumed to maximise the welfare of only one region. In such a setting, we find that when the central and local governments independently consider whether to privatise their respective public firms, only the state‐owned public firm should be privatised. Furthermore, we show that for the welfare of a country, a mixed oligopoly with a vertical structure of government can be more desirable than a mixed oligopoly without it.     

House‐Price Expectations,Alternative Mortgage Products,and Default

The goal of this paper is to better understand the forces that spurred use of alternative mortgages during the housing boom. A theoretical model shows that, when future house‐price expectations become more favorable, reducing default concerns, mortgage choices shift toward alternative products, which are characterized by backloading of payments. The empirical work confirms this prediction by showing that an increase in past house‐price appreciation, which captures more favorable expectations for the future, raises the market share of alternative mortgages. In addition, the paper tests the fundamental presumption that backloaded mortgages are more likely to default, finding support for this view.